The second-hand luxury watch market has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent years. After a period of record prices driven by new millionaires from cryptocurrencies and the stock market, the luxury watch bubble burst. Now, factors such as the rebound in cryptocurrencies and changes in the trade war initiated by the US are reshaping the recovery landscape for this exclusive market.
2020: the rise of Bitcoin and the stock market boom. The interest in luxury watches is not just a passing fad. The nature of luxury watches, considered both works of engineering art and an alternative form of investment that sometimes outperforms the stock markets, also responds to global economic movements and the search for safe-haven assets.In XatakaA farmer thought a cow had eaten his Rolex. Fifty years later, he got it back, but it needed a good clean.
During the pandemic and the years that followed, the rise of cryptocurrencies and the stock market boom generated a new wave of millionaires. Many of them, driven by the need to invest their profits in tangible assets, rushed to buy luxury watches.
This trend particularly affected brands such as Rolex, Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe, whose most coveted models were difficult to find in traditional shops due to their limited production. This dramatically increased demand, far outstripping supply. The result: a bubble that caused the second-hand market for these exclusive watches to skyrocket, reaching twice the price they cost new.
The collapse of the bubble. This bubble did not take long to burst. When the financial markets began to show signs of weakness, many of the investors who had purchased luxury watches decided to sell them, flooding the second-hand market with pieces they had bought at inflated prices just a few months earlier.
The oversupply and lack of buyers meant that watches that had previously sold for twice their original price were now barely selling, causing prices to fall to historic lows.
Stabilisation and recovery factors. Although the second-hand luxury watch market is still at modest levels, it is beginning to show signs of a moderate recovery. As highlighted in Bloomberg, although the figures are far from the levels reached after the pandemic, the sector is beginning to recover, driven in part by renewed investor interest in cryptocurrencies following the upturn experienced in recent months.
Uncertainty over tariffs imposed by the US on European luxury goods, including Swiss watches, may be slowing this boom, as they affect both final retail prices and the availability of products in key markets such as the US.
Impact of tariffs. Following the announcement of the tariffs that the US was going to impose on Europe, US suppliers of luxury watches reacted immediately. According to data published by Bloomberg, after ‘Liberation Day,’ which marked the start of Trump’s trade war, there was a 150% increase in purchasing volume in the US market in anticipation of the tariffs coming into effect. It was a reaction that even Apple could not avoid.
However, the following month, purchases fell by 25% because suppliers had simply bought everything they could and Trump’s tariff sanctions had not been implemented, which meant that the supply of new watches in stores met demand. As a result, prices on the second-hand market have remained stable.
The diversification of luxury goods. At the same time, stagnating sales of luxury goods in Asia, especially in China, have meant that luxury watch manufacturers have more stock available for the European and North American markets. This has also contributed to the stabilisation of second-hand prices because there is not so much pressure on the availability of new watches in stores.
In addition, the boom in high-end jewellery for men is also contributing to the smooth recovery of the second-hand luxury watch market. Until relatively recently, watches were the only notable piece of jewellery in men’s fashion. However, in recent years, the trend has changed and necklaces, bracelets and other jewellery are now part of men’s outfits. Not even Mark Zuckerberg has been able to resist.
In 2023, the volume of this market was 8.5 billion dollars, but by 2025 it is estimated to grow to 9.41 billion dollars, indicating that men’s jewellery is gaining ground and watches are no longer the only option for high net worth investors.
